Africa's Oil Refining Capacity Poised for Expansion in 2026

Africa's oil refining landscape is set to undergo notable changes by 2026, with several facilities projected to increase the continent's overall crude processing capacity. This expansion reflects ongoing efforts to enhance local value addition and energy independence across various regions.

Key projects driving this growth include facilities in Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt, among other nations. These developments aim to meet increasing domestic demand for refined petroleum products and potentially position some countries as regional exporters. The scale of these operations varies, with some reaching considerable processing volumes.

By 2026, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria is expected to be a significant contributor to the continent's refining capacity. With a projected processing capability of 650,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd), it represents a substantial addition to the West African refining infrastructure. This facility is designed to produce a range of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and polypropylene.

Another major facility in Nigeria, the Port Harcourt Refining Company, is anticipated to contribute 210,000 bpsd to the country's total capacity. Similarly, the Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Company, also in Nigeria, is projected to add 125,000 bpsd. These facilities, along with other domestic refineries, underpin Nigeria's strategy for refined product self-sufficiency.

In Angola, the Lobito refinery is slated to have a processing capacity of 300,000 bpsd, making it a key player in the Southern African region. Egypt is also expanding its refining capabilities, with the Assiut refinery expected to reach 100,000 bpsd and the Mostorod refinery projected at 142,000 bpsd. These additions underscore North Africa's commitment to strengthening its energy infrastructure.

Additional capacities are projected from various other African nations. The Safi refinery in Morocco is expected to process 200,000 bpsd. In Libya, the Ras Lanuf refinery is anticipated to contribute 220,000 bpsd. The Skikda refinery in Algeria is projected at 360,000 bpsd, while South Africa's Sapref refinery is listed with 180,000 bpsd of processing capability.

Overview of African Refining Capacity

The collective growth in refining capacity across Africa suggests a strategic shift towards reducing reliance on imported refined products. The projected expansions and new refinery commissions indicate a potential for increased regional trade in petroleum derivatives and enhanced energy security for participating nations.

This trend is particularly relevant for commodity markets as it influences crude oil demand within the continent, shifts in global refined product flows, and bunkering operations in regional ports. The operational status and utilization rates of these facilities will be key factors in assessing their full impact on the supply chain.

What it means

For commodity traders and shipowners, the anticipated growth in African refining capacity by 2026 signals potential shifts in regional crude demand and refined product availability. Increased local production could reduce arbitrage opportunities for imported refined fuels but may create new demand for specific crude grades or offer opportunities for refined product exports from the continent. Shipowners involved in intra-African trade or crude oil transportation to these new facilities should monitor operational timelines and product specifications. This development could also influence bunkering markets, with potentially greater availability of locally refined fuels at key African ports.