Hormuz Strait Blockage Triggers Global Jet Fuel Crisis as Disruption Spreads to Europe

A severe jet fuel supply crisis is spreading across international aviation networks following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to escalating military conflict between Iran and the United States. Global airlines and fuel buyers are confronting record operational expenses as jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the year. The maritime choke point's closure has disrupted essential middle distillate trade flows, creating acute inventory deficits in Asia and threatening severe supply shortages across European airports. Consequently, commercial carriers are being forced to alter flight schedules, implement fuel conservation measures, and prepare for potential route cancellations.

Data from energy analytics firm Vortexa reveals that European jet fuel imports are expected to drop by as much as 420,000 barrels per day this week. This slump represents a 40 percent decrease compared to the previous week, driving import volumes to their lowest point since March 2022. Prior to the disruption, the Strait of Hormuz facilitated approximately 40 percent of Europe's total aviation fuel imports. Today, Middle Eastern export volumes heading toward European destinations have collapsed by up to 90 percent.

Industry researchers warn that the rapid depletion of regional reserves could lead to widespread fuel starvation across European transit hubs. Lars van Wageningen, Research Manager at Insights Global, indicated that the entire European continent faces a tangible supply crisis in the coming weeks ahead of the peak summer travel season. Analysts caution that if regional inventory drawdowns persist, European airlines may be compelled to trim short- and medium-haul flight frequencies by late April. In response to mounting costs, International Air Transport Association Director General Willie Walsh noted that airlines will inevitably pass rising fuel expenditures directly to passengers through higher fares.

Asian carriers implement operational restrictions

Asia has experienced early and pronounced disruptions due to its substantial dependence on crude and refined product shipments routed through the Persian Gulf. Governments and state-linked energy administrators across the Asia-Pacific region are implementing emergency stockpile protections and restricting export quotas to secure local demand. As Jet A-1 inventories contract, airlines are adjusting flight programs and grounding non-essential capacity to conserve remaining reserves.

• Vietnam Airlines announced the suspension of 23 domestic flights per week starting April 1 due to tightening Jet A-1 stocks.
• Air New Zealand has cancelled approximately 1,100 domestic flights to manage fuel constraints.
• Authorities in China have begun restricting petroleum product exports, while South Korea is reviewing plans to divert export-bound jet fuel back into its domestic market.
• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. acknowledged that the grounding of commercial aircraft remains a distinct possibility if supply restrictions persist.

To navigate localized fuel shortages, several airlines have instituted round-trip fueling practices, carrying extra jet fuel from origin airports to eliminate destination refueling. While this operational workaround mitigates local inventory shortfalls, carrying additional fuel weight increases overall aircraft weight and elevates burn rates. Macquarie Group Global Energy Strategist Vikas Dwivedi stressed that airlines cannot sustain standard flight capacity without adequate fuel volume. Meanwhile, energy market analysts estimate that up to 37 million barrels of jet fuel and kerosene could be removed from the global market if access through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Prolonged lag projected for market normalization

Market participants emphasize that even if geopolitical tensions subside swiftly, the global jet fuel supply chain will not experience an immediate recovery. Orkhan Rustamov, CEO of Alkagesta, highlighted that a significant operational lag will impede market normalization. Rustamov noted that rebalancing global trade routes, adjusting refinery yield configurations, and rebuilding commercial flight schedules will require considerable time. Consequently, middle distillate markets are expected to remain constrained well beyond any initial diplomatic resolution.

What it means

For commodity traders, the sudden loss of Persian Gulf jet fuel exports creates substantial structural imbalances across middle distillate markets and crack spreads. The diversion of physical flows forces prompt re-arbitrage, driving up premium differentials for non-Middle Eastern barrels and spot Jet A-1 cargoes. Traders must manage heightened volatility in regional inventories while tracking potential refinery yield shifts toward jet fuel production at the expense of diesel.

For shipowners and marine logistics operators, altered trade patterns will lengthen ton-mile demand for product tankers as replacement barrels are sourced from longer-distance refining hubs. However, broader supply chain disruptions and elevated crude prices threaten to escalate marine bunker costs across key bunkering hubs. Vessel operators face increased counterparty risk and dynamic shifts in product tanker routing as global energy flows adjust to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources - [Bloomberg — Asia’s Air Travel Crisis Risks Spreading on Iran War’s Jet Fuel Squeeze](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/air-travel-crisis-risks-spreading-on-iran-war-s-jet-fuel-squeeze) (2026-03-27) - [Lianhe Zaobao — 航空燃油短缺冲击 或从亚洲扩散至欧美](https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/world/story20260328-8807203) (2026-03-28) - [SWA — Krisis Avtur Global: Selat Hormuz Tersumbat](https://swa.co.id/read/470839/krisis-avtur-global-selat-hormuz-tersumbat-industri-penerbangan-asia-dan-eropa-di-ambang-kelumpuhan) (2026-03-28) - [O Globo — Crise no transporte aéreo da Ásia ameaça se espalhar](https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/03/27/crise-no-transporte-aereo-da-asia-ameaca-se-espalhar-com-disparada-do-combustivel-de-aviacao.ghtml) (2026-03-27)

Atlas Commodity Group reported this story independently from the syndicated coverage listed above. Facts are attributed to the original publishers.